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Steven Hamilton

Columnist

Steven Hamilton is assistant professor of economics at George Washington University and visiting fellow at the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute at the ANU.

Steven Hamilton

This Month

Treasurer Jim Chalmers claims he’s the only thing standing between Australia and recession.

Public sector is strangling economy to death

Like a parasitic twin, the healthy economy is sucking the life out of the sick economy. Something has to give.

November

 We needed to see images of Anthony Albanese, sleeves rolled up, sitting around the cabinet table with Steven Kennedy. Where were they?

Labor should have taken global inflation as seriously as the GFC

If the government had taken belt-tightening decisions 2½ years ago to help lower inflation, Australians’ living standards would be better today.

Voters were more sensitive to price rises than to potential unemployment numbers.

Albanese and Chalmers make the same error as Biden and Harris

The Democrats’ decision to put jobs ahead of inflation has cost them dearly. But Labor has been doing the same thing.

Labor’s mimicking of Biden on uni debt is inequitable and indefensible

Not satisfied with crippling Australia’s higher education system with its self-destructive student caps, the government simply couldn’t resist doubling down.

October

Overall, Australia’s COVID management was a huge success

Where we succeeded, it was the result of good institutions and good decision-making. But that’s not to say we didn’t stumble.

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Many believe Donald Trump’s tax policies will be good for investment.

The US presidential election is a contest of economic illiterates

There is a lot of crazy economic policy being spruiked by both sides of American politics, but thinking people know serious, substantive policy debate will take place next year.

September

How Australia crushed the COVID curve and lost the race

This country had one of the best-designed economic responses in the world, and one of the worst vaccine procurement processes.

Jim Chalmers’ subterfuge no longer seems to be fooling anyone.

Chalmers is smashing Labor’s economic legacy

If only the treasurer focused a little less on managing political expectations and a little more on managing inflation expectations we might have avoided this mess in the first place.

August

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock: If her word is her bond, then it’s been downgraded to junk.

Reserve Bank has finally taken the inflation crisis seriously

The consumer price index reading gave the RBA an out. Instead, governor Michele Bullock’s tough talk dumped cold water on a rate cut any time soon.

June

If you need external validation of these basic economics, look no further than the opposition’s own announcement.

Nuclear is unviable because of economics, not engineering

Even if all that mattered was the cheapest possible energy that meets minimum levels of reliability and emissions, the Coalition’s plan fails.

In speaking about the March quarter national accounts last Wednesday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers continued to demonstrate a disappointing proclivity for spin over substance.

Jim Chalmers is a doctor of spin, not economics

The treasurer has talked down the economy to defend the expansionary nature of his budget decisions when what we need now, more than ever, is straight talking.

If the energy rebates are indeed successful in lowering CPI inflation back into the target band, the board will face huge pressure to ease monetary policy.

Reserve Bank must restore credibility and not buy into energy rebate trickery

A year out from an election and amid Labor’s overhaul of the institution, a temporary mechanical reduction in the CPI has the potential to interfere with the RBA’s independent conduct of monetary policy.

May

For more than a year, the government has claimed subsidising energy bills reduces inflation.

Why you can’t argue the $300 energy rebate will lower inflation

Energy bill relief increases real disposable income and boosts aggregate demand. We can debate how far they push inflation, but not that the direction is up.

A better than expected economy, lower than forecast unemployment, and sticker than wanted inflation set up a diabolical task for Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third budget in May.

This is the most irresponsible budget in recent memory

The government set itself a simple standard: not to make the Reserve Bank’s job harder. Michele Bullock may just choke on her cornflakes.

  • Updated
Jim Chalmers and Michele Bullock have no one to blame. They should have seen what was happening in the US.

Governor and treasurer share blame for sticky inflation

Michele Bullock and Jim Chalmers had fair warning about the need for decisive action.

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April

Negative gearing is not a rort or a tax concession

Negative gearing is said to single-handedly be responsible for Australia’s housing crisis. But it is a principled, fair and efficient feature of any tax system.

July 2023

Michele Bullock in Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s office on Friday.

Bullock’s crucial role will be renovating a national institution

The new Reserve Bank of Australia governor’s job is not to be the smartest economist in the room. It’s to recruit those who are.

June 2023

Anticipating Tuesday’s rate hike, the Treasurer continued to deflect on Monday.

Chalmers can’t keep passing the buck on inflation

Energy subsidies are not disinflationary. The budget is expansionary. And the wages lever the government is pulling will also make the RBA’s job harder.

May 2023

Never mind the result, where’s the strategy?

Why this is the most confounding budget of recent times

How well did Jim Chalmers do on Tuesday night? A whole lot better than he could have. And a whole lot worse, too.

Far from learning a lesson from the previous government’s budget, Jim Chalmers looks set to do it all over again.

Chalmers can’t have his inflation cake and eat it too

To see through the Treasurer’s subterfuge, simply ask yourself: will the cost of living measures put money into people’s pockets or remove it from them?