This Month
- Opinion
- Productivity
Public sector to blame for Australia’s poor productivity
Australia’s economic story has become dominated by public rather than private activity as politicians spend crazy amounts of money to buy votes.
November
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Could the RBA cut interest rates in February?
The latest inflation readings imply that there is a possibility the Reserve Bank of Australia could start easing early in the new year.
- Opinion
- Big four
Bank stocks look 58 per cent overvalued
Aussie bank stocks are the dearest in the developed world, according to Barrenjoey. It’s no wonder retail investors are heading for the exits.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Why interest rates could be higher under Trump
New research finds that Trump’s policies could drive rates much higher than markets are assuming.
- Opinion
- US Votes 2024
Markets celebrate a Trumpian revolution
While investors are rejoicing at the prospect of a business-friendly Trump administration, it will also amplify long-term inflation and asset pricing risks.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Heed the alarming writing on the wall left by bond bandits
Equity investors are slowly waking up to the risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
October
- Opinion
- Bonds
US election will drive long-term Aussie interest rates
Markets should keep a close eye on where yields land after Donald Trump or Kamla Harris claim victory on November 5.
- Opinion
- Bonds
Hopes for a soft landing remain heroic
Government spending crowding out private sector activity means that inflation and interest rates are likely to remain high.
- Opinion
- Australian economy
RBA blowing financial stability bubble
Household leverage has declined in the US and Europe, but the lax approach of Australia’s central bank has fuelled a record increase in household debt.
- Opinion
- Hybrids
Trading regulatory risk in the $40b hybrid sector
Investors are puzzling over what to do with their hybrids following APRA’s proposal to phase out the sector.
September
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Rate cuts herald risky new regime
Financial markets have entered a dangerous new economic environment defined by unusually elevated uncertainty after the US Federal Reserve’s pivot this week.
- Opinion
- Big four
Why is APRA trying to blow up the hybrid market?
The prudential watchdog wants to boost bank leverage and raise the risks depositors and taxpayers face in the name of ameliorating its regulatory complexity.
- Opinion
- Investing
Is private credit becoming the next subprime crisis?
Investors need to consider whether they are getting sufficient additional returns for the risks that debts issued by unregulated non-bank lenders present.
August
- Opinion
- Inflation
Beware the threat of reaccelerating inflation in 2025
It is awfully hard beating inflation out of the system without a real recession. Most soft landings have ended up triggering even higher interest rates.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Lower inflation could pressure RBA to cut rates
Very low inflation readings in the coming months will change the interest rate debate.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Arrogant RBA boss should stop trying to muffle opponents
The haughty deputy governor of the Reserve Bank should focus on ensuring the central bank does not once again become a false prophet.
- Opinion
- US recession
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot
The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global peers.
July
- Opinion
- Interest rates
If the RBA was doing its job, it would immediately lift rates
A hot inflation figure on Wednesday would show we are in the grip of a structurally persistent crisis which has been underestimated in three of the last four quarters.
- Opinion
- US election
Second subprime crisis more likely with Trump in the White House
Investors need to start preparing for how a re-elected Donald Trump will shape inflation, interest rates, and hence asset prices.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
This rule suggests the US is on the brink of recession
The gradual increase in US unemployment has almost satisfied the “Sahm rule”, which has correctly identified the inception of all US recessions.
